Charting Burst prices over the years

[Tom Wittrock]

The only part that is any work is collecting all the data.........how long would that take!!

More than a lifetime, I suspect. :ahem

 

[Gold Tone]

More than a lifetime, I suspect. :ahem

But what fun it would be!

Tom;

You have probably had more bursts through your hands over the past few decades than anyone else for miles from the LPF. Can you give us a VERY "ballpark" idea of how prices have changed over the years? In my memory it was something like $300 when new in the late 50's. Less than $1000 through the 60's. In the $1000 - $2500 range in the 70's. $5000 - $12000 in the 80's.................then I lost track (because I sat on my ass in the 80's when I could have bought and now I NEVER could!!).

What's your experinced take on it?

 

[Rafael]

Goldtone,

As I mentioned before, we can use financial models to come up with a trendline. If you think about it, its a very illiquid market, so we would have to use something similar to 3rd Grade Debt Securities pricing models. I work in an investment bank in Brazil (the bank is american, the branch is in Sao Paulo) and I can find out which model would be better.

One question... what would be, ballpark, the average time you would need to unwind a burst? How long would it take to sell it, assuming the price is reasonable within market?

Rock on,

Rafael

 

[55Custom]

Someone else here made this chart a while back using real figures.

 

[RAB]

I bought my first burst ('59, very tiger stripe; removed Bigsby) for $1000 (actually traded a '57 maple neck strat, '56 LP Junior and $300 cash if I remember correctly!) and I was the laughing stock of the town for having paid so much for a used guitar. I "showed them" by selling it for $2500 a couple years later! bought subsequent bursts (4 more) for between $2500-6500 and sold my last burst (1960; mint, some curl) for $11K in 1990...SIGH!

 

[Joe Ganzler]

I bought my first burst ('59, very tiger stripe; removed Bigsby) for $1000 (actually traded a '57 maple neck strat, '56 LP Junior and $300 cash if I remember correctly!) and I was the laughing stock of the town for having paid so much for a used guitar. I "showed them" by selling it for $2500 a couple years later! bought subsequent bursts (4 more) for between $2500-6500 and sold my last burst (1960; mint, some curl) for $11K in 1990...SIGH!

Lucky you got out before that stupid Burst market tanked, eh? =(

 

[eddie101]

I bought my first burst ('59, very tiger stripe; removed Bigsby) for $1000 (actually traded a '57 maple neck strat, '56 LP Junior and $300 cash if I remember correctly!) and I was the laughing stock of the town for having paid so much for a used guitar. I "showed them" by selling it for $2500 a couple years later! bought subsequent bursts (4 more) for between $2500-6500 and sold my last burst (1960; mint, some curl) for $11K in 1990...SIGH!

I guess it is like selling stocks in a way. Once you sold them, NEVER look back

:wink2

 

[Tom Wittrock]

Tom;
Can you give us a VERY "ballpark" idea of how prices have changed over the years?

yes.
They've gone up.

That's the "ballpark" answer.
What else do you really need to know? :ahem

 

[Gold Tone]

What else do you really need to know? :ahem

Where to get one cheap......come on.....you know.

 

[Tom Wittrock]

Where to get one cheap......come on.....you know.

I'm working on that.

 

[Joneye]

Of course this can be charted. Variability doesn't mean it can't be done. ANYTHING can be graphed.

How about a percentile-based comparison graph: one line each for say 3 different price groups, each of them grouped by the total available data for that year divided into three: lowest 33%, then middle and then highest 33%. Three side-by-side squiggles over say 40 years.

Not perfect but it might show some meaningful comparison without one percentile group throwing off the other two.

 

[Tom Wittrock]

Funny how everybody is speculating what they could do, if they had information that is obviously unattainable. :lol

 

[Joneye]

Well, that's nitpicking isn't it? :1959burst

 

[greg123]

Funny how everybody is speculating what they could do, if they had information that is obviously unattainable. :lol

I dont know, but if you put Ron,Perry,Ziff,Vic,and Tom in a room.

You would have a fair sampling.

 

[DaveTV]

Has anybody tracked the serial numbers close enough to estimate how many are still 'un-found'........under the bed?

 

[Tom Wittrock]

I dont know, but if you put Ron,Perry,Ziff,Vic,and Tom in a room.

You would have a fair sampling.

A fair start, at best.
When you think about it carefully, we are still a "drop in the bucket", despite what many assume. :wink2


Considering conservatively, there were about 1500 Bursts sold originally. Considering most Bursts on the market in the last 20 years are not "one owner" guitars, we would have many thousands of Bursts sales to record. On several occasions I have witnessed a Burst sold twice in the same day.

There is a ton of anecdotal evidence on Burst sale prices, contained in this Forum. Anybody want to do the research, compile the figures of that info, and create a series of charts for us to comment on, please do.
I, in no way discourage the research. I do find the idle speculation, that always goes off on pointless tangents, to be tiring, and humorous. And, I admit, I often can't resist commenting on my own impressions, and those posted here [the LPF].
And, I still think lumping Bursts into a single category, for price statistics, is almost always way too shallow. So many readers and posters still don't grasp the complexities of Burst pricing. Mainly, because it is just easier not to. But, by dismissing that part of it, I find the "conclussions" to often be ridiculous.
:tw59

 

[Tom Wittrock]

Has anybody tracked the serial numbers close enough to estimate how many are still 'un-found'........under the bed?

Hard to keep up with, what with all the "new" ones that enter the market. :roll

Seriously, some here have keep records and photos. Adding in the missing numbers of "batches" would be nice, if we were certain of the starting and ending number of each batch.
Again, with enough research of previous threads, some of this might be figured out, by recording the info this Forum contains.

 

[Bluespower]

TW,
So there are "batches" of serial numbers (guitars) that were never made. Are these the "gaps"? So maybe there were way less than 1500 actually made.?

But
Could we assume that the numbers are at least, for the most part, sequential.

 

[Tom Wittrock]

TW,
So there are "batches" of serial numbers (guitars) that were never made. Are these the "gaps"? So maybe there were way less than 1500 actually made.?

But
Could we assume that the numbers are at least, for the most part, sequential.

I assume not all the available 59 numbers were used. I also assume they reserved these numbers for models, but may not have used all the reserved numbers. But, I have found no definitive source of info on batch numbers. It's all assumption based on a lot of people's experiences.

However, the shipping totals are what is used to determine how many were made, not the allotment of possible serial numbers. I doubt there were way less Bursts made, than the totals given in the shipping records. I think they are probably very close to an accurate headcount. The combination of GTs and Bursts in 1958 make the final total of Bursts a "guess-timate".

Also, I doubt the numbers were completely sequential, although they probably largely were.

 

[jbjbjbjb]

While I am be writing out of envy as a non-owner of anything 58-60, what I would throw into the mix is if you substitute the word "dotcom stock" with the word "BURST" you might have a pretty accurate analysis of what is going on in the vintage guitar world. If it can't go up forever..it won't. Collectible markets are notoriously volatile as they are subject to whims and fancies of the day, rather than a true objective sense of worth. I would bet 80% of the sales of guitars for "investment purposes" are being made by the same people who pissed away 50% or more of their retirement savings in 1999-2003. "They aren't making these anymore" has never stopped beachfront real estate, Picassos, or Coca Cola stock from having 30 and 50% declines from time to time, and the higher parabolic shape of current pricing the more likely the near-term future is expected to be poor..extrapolating the very recent pricing into the future is a recipe for hurt...or so says the enlightened height of my own self interest in seeing prices fall 30% so I can satisfy my own post-teenage cravings!
jb