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Is the vintage market bubble likely to burst?

Zentar

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Oct 1, 2011
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830
Johnny B Good did not have a case for his guitar. When he bought his guitar he had to store it in a gunny sack.
il_fullxfull.366672734_itxr.jpg
 

zappa1777

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Jun 23, 2015
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37
As said earlier bursts, explorers etc are in a category of their own so who knows. With regards to p90 les Paul's and fenders I can't imagine them holding their value. There's an extraordinary amount hidden away in collections and the collectors are getting old. I imagine that over the next 20 years these guitars will be sold. Are there enough younger vintage guitar nuts out there to buy all of those guitars for current value? I have my doubts
 

Base6

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Nov 13, 2006
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As said earlier bursts, explorers etc are in a category of their own so who knows. With regards to p90 les Paul's and fenders I can't imagine them holding their value. There's an extraordinary amount hidden away in collections and the collectors are getting old. I imagine that over the next 20 years these guitars will be sold. Are there enough younger vintage guitar nuts out there to buy all of those guitars for current value? I have my doubts

I think that is wishful thinking, to be honest.
Also, there are probably less TOM P90 LPs left than there are burst with all the conversions, canabalism and natural deterioration going on. Personally, I like P90s more than PAFs. With LED technologies, better shielding and more efficient electrical circuits, less magnetic interference causes less hum than 50-60 years ago, that triggered the humbuckers to be developed. Today, I never really had much trouble with hum that would be needed to buck.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if there the prices in fact make another major leap. P90 LPs will become more sought after and scarce, especially with original TOMs. But, I am biased, I’ll admit. Yet, not wishful thinking as I’d like to be able to buy more.

Bottom line, there will always be people with money who create demand for vintage stuff. Supply of old guitars isn’t growing, in fact, is getting increasingly more scarce.
Suplly and demand will always balance out. How? Time will tell, but demand will be there for sure until the guitar goes out of fashion completely.

For now; would you go vintage, if they were 10% more than modern build? Yes? How about, 20% more? Yes? .... well, there you have it.
 
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zappa1777

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Jun 23, 2015
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All depends how many guitars come out of collections. There are thousands upon thousands upon thousands of vintage guitars in collections right now. Supply and demand set the price. If the supply increases then the price drops. You're probably right about goldtops to an extent but there are a lot more strats and teles out there than goldtops. I'm more of a wraparound type of guy and they made quite a few of those from what I understand. 😉
 

agogetr

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Jan 22, 2019
Messages
451
folks talk about boomers dying and the market being flooded and reduced prices? how many fifties goldtops total were built? isnt there somthing like 100 and 80 gajilion people on the earth? if you added up all of the surviving original strats, teles, and les pauls 335.s pre 67 wouldnt it be way less than a million guitars?
add gretsches ,martins. moserites etc etc. if people want real true awesome vintage guitars there wont ever be enough to go around.... unless the banjo comes back. country music is hot right now.. and yes they are wailing on guitars for all the future artists to admire.
 
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