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Is the vintage market bubble likely to burst?

miczap

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Oct 31, 2018
Messages
213
Top-end of the burst market just pushed over 500k (AUD) with the bell sitting in the 400-450 range.

This got me thinking, as prices for vintage guitars continue to go up, moving up towards pre-GFC prices, are we likely to see a, ahem, burst (ding) of the bubble anytime soon?

I'm afraid my career won't out-run the price climb.
 

sonar

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Jan 10, 2003
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The most desirable might plateau for a period of time, but I don't foresee some all-encompassing bubble burst. Player grade constantly fluctuates and is the most volatile.
 

renderit

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Jan 19, 2009
Messages
10,951
It bursted on Bursts last night!

I will offer 2K to anyone wishing to dump that old crap!

Better move. This offer is only good for a short time!
 

brandtkronholm

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Dec 3, 2006
Messages
2,737
The vintage market bubble burst about ten years ago.

The 'Burst market seems to be largely independent of the general vintage guitar market. In other words, the 'Burst market doesn't appear to be a bubble. Unfortunately the $18K 1958 Special purchased in 2006 is now worth about $9K.
 

garywright

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Aug 17, 2002
Messages
15,583
Top-end of the burst market just pushed over 500k (AUD) with the bell sitting in the 400-450 range.
You can’t possibly know what $ amounts are being offered behind the scenes ..but feel free to speculate
 

sonar

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The vintage market bubble burst about ten years ago.

The 'Burst market seems to be largely independent of the general vintage guitar market. In other words, the 'Burst market doesn't appear to be a bubble. Unfortunately the $18K 1958 Special purchased in 2006 is now worth about $9K.
$18K for a Special?

A fool and his money...
 

brandtkronholm

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$18K for a Special?

A fool and his money...

Specials and Jrs. were fetching stupid money around 2004-2007. I recall seeing a 1963 red 335 with a Bigsby in NYC that had a $50K price tag on it in 2006 or so. It was madness.
 

toneville

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Apr 3, 2019
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Will the bubble burst? Sure. Someday your guitar may be just like uncle Arnie's clarinet in the attic.
When?
Well I thought when burst hit $15K it was topping out. and at $30k I thought it was nuts. I knew the bubble would burst . Well, it hasn't yet.
I remember when Mercedes Gullwing 300SLs were $30k and a '56 Porsche speedster was $15k. They haven't stopped increasing in value yet either. There are certain hallmark items that it seems will have value always (barring a major depression or economic flat line. The fact is we can't know if it will end soon or in another 30 years. We are in a worldwide market and that gives some protection that someone will push the demand even if someone else weakens on demand. All I know is that I have been wrong in the past . We will have to wait and see.
 

F-Hole

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Sep 2, 2015
Messages
2,171
The vintage market bubble burst about ten years ago.

In early 09 I bought a near mind blonde dot for $70k, and it wasn't all the money back then. Today, for a comparable guitar, it's more than $125k (one, in lesser condition, sold in March).

Not all guitars are down.
 

Patek

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Dec 4, 2015
Messages
415
In early 09 I bought a near mind blonde dot for $70k, and it wasn't all the money back then. Today, for a comparable guitar, it's more than $125k (one, in lesser condition, sold in March).

Not all guitars are down.

2009 Is after the crash !!!

maybe the guy you bought it off lost half his money... who knows.
 

Steve Craw

Formerly Lefty Elmo
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Sep 9, 2004
Messages
5,295
In 2008 I went to the Philly Shows. At the summer show I saw a nice 1958 burst in a dealers booth. I don't remember the exact asking , but I do remember the same dealer had the same guitar at Fall Philly, and the price was 40K less. Big drop in only four months.
 
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Tom Wittrock

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Aug 2, 2001
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42,567
In 2008 I went to the Philly Shows. I saw a nice 1958 burst in a dealers booth. I don't remember the exact asking price ten years later, but I do remember the same dealer had the same guitar at Fall Philly, and the price was 40K less.

If he couldn't sell a Burst in 10 years, the prices were probably too high in the first place. :hmm
 

marshall1987

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Jan 30, 2005
Messages
3,278
I think we are already seeing a softening of prices of 2nd and 3rd tier vintage guitars. These are usually the budget models from the '50s and '60s. SGs are in a precarious market status presently. Personally, I wouldn't pay more than $5,000 for a vintage SG with PAFs. The damn things break too easily. :dang

Other examples include entry and mid-level Gibson guitars from the "Golden Era" (Juniors and Specials), and Gibson guitars from the mid to late '60s (especially guitars with the 1 9/16" nut).

I would add to the list many of the CBS (post 1965) era Fenders.

Vintage sunburst Gibson Les Pauls in excellent condition without issues, may never fall in price in our lifetimes.

The level of interest with fickle guitar buyers 25-50 years from now will determine the market. The question is whether or not our children and grandchildren will attach the same value on these guitars as we do today. The kids may have different priorities and interests in 2040. :dang
 

jimmi

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I think we are already seeing a softening of prices of 2nd and 3rd tier vintage guitars. These are usually the budget models from the '50s and '60s. SGs are in a precarious market status presently. Personally, I wouldn't pay more than $5,000 for a vintage SG with PAFs. The damn things break too easily. :dang

Other examples include entry and mid-level Gibson guitars from the "Golden Era" (Juniors and Specials), and Gibson guitars from the mid to late '60s (especially guitars with the 1 9/16" nut).

I would add to the list many of the CBS (post 1965) era Fenders.

Vintage sunburst Gibson Les Pauls in excellent condition without issues, may never fall in price in our lifetimes.

The level of interest with fickle guitar buyers 25-50 years from now will determine the market. The question is whether or not our children and grandchildren will attach the same value on these guitars as we do today. The kids may have different priorities and interests in 2040. :dang


The PAFs and harness out of a 61-64 SG are worth more than $5000. What are people doing to break the necks anyway? I have a ‘61 that is pretty roadwork and never broken.


Anyway, part of me doesn’t care if the market did crash. Then I could hoard up on vintage guitars like a cat lady at the city dump collecting cats. Sure lose money on some that I have but I don’t get that unless I sell anyway.
 

brandtkronholm

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Dec 3, 2006
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2,737
In early 09 I bought a near mind blonde dot for $70k, and it wasn't all the money back then. Today, for a comparable guitar, it's more than $125k (one, in lesser condition, sold in March).

Not all guitars are down.

Indeed, the market for 'Bursts, blonde/red/black 335s & 345s ('59-'60), Vs, Explorers, Pre-War L5s and Super 400s (with upper fret access), and early flat tops will remain forever strong. So to will Pre-War rosewood Martins, especially those with 45 style appointments, the big Strombergs (Master 400s), D'Angelicos, Blackguard Teles, early Strats, certain Gretchs, etc. ...

However, (echoing marshal1987's post #13) SGs, Specials, Jrs, Customs, P90 Goldtops, 330s and Gibson instruments produced after 1964/5 are just a funny bunch these days.

For a good read of an expert opinion, check out http://guitarhq.com/. Guitars are given a "collectability" grade. For example, some Forum Members might be shocked to read that Gibson SGs are have the following Collectibility Rating: late 1960-1961: D+, 1962-1964: C, 1965-1971: D-. (I understand this opinion and agree with it by-and-large, though I would enjoy a nice '62 SG with PAFS!)
 
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Zentar

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Does anyone know why movie star Richard Gere only got $98k for his 59 at auction 3 or so years ago?
 

sws1

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Does anyone know why movie star Richard Gere only got $98k for his 59 at auction 3 or so years ago?

It was 8 years ago.

Some missing plastic. PAFs may not have been real. Bigsby. Still somewhat cheap, but not as cheap as if this had sold 3 years ago.

The guitar is fitted with two Humbuckers each bearing a later PATENT APPLIED FOR decal. Both pickups are with double black bobbins. There is a chip on the upper face of the headstock. The fingerboard has been refretted. The guitar was formally fitted with non-original tuners but has been restored back to single ring Klusons of the period. Resoldering is evident on the contacts. There are two changed screws on the mounting to the neck pickup surround, which is original. The bridge pickup surround is a later Gibson replacement. The Les Paul Model silkscreen logo normally on the headstock is worn and no longer visible. Originaly fit with a stud tailpiece the guitar is now mounted with a Bigsby and the original tailpiece mounts have been plugged with pearl eyes.

The pickguard is from a pre-1958 Les Paul recut to accommodate Humbucking pickups. The pickguard bracket and toggle switch surround are not original. The case is not original and is an earlier "four latch" Gibson, Les Paul case.
An original stud tailpiece and one mounting stud are sold with the guitar.
 

Bouldergold

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Aug 9, 2016
Messages
70
As long as the economy is doing as well as it is right now vintage guitars will increase in value.
Ten years ago the mood of the country in terms of consumer confidence was poor.
It's been much better in the last 2 years.




It was 8 years ago.

Some missing plastic. PAFs may not have been real. Bigsby. Still somewhat cheap, but not as cheap as if this had sold 3 years ago.

The guitar is fitted with two Humbuckers each bearing a later PATENT APPLIED FOR decal. Both pickups are with double black bobbins. There is a chip on the upper face of the headstock. The fingerboard has been refretted. The guitar was formally fitted with non-original tuners but has been restored back to single ring Klusons of the period. Resoldering is evident on the contacts. There are two changed screws on the mounting to the neck pickup surround, which is original. The bridge pickup surround is a later Gibson replacement. The Les Paul Model silkscreen logo normally on the headstock is worn and no longer visible. Originaly fit with a stud tailpiece the guitar is now mounted with a Bigsby and the original tailpiece mounts have been plugged with pearl eyes.

The pickguard is from a pre-1958 Les Paul recut to accommodate Humbucking pickups. The pickguard bracket and toggle switch surround are not original. The case is not original and is an earlier "four latch" Gibson, Les Paul case.
An original stud tailpiece and one mounting stud are sold with the guitar.
 

Zentar

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Joined
Oct 1, 2011
Messages
830
It was 8 years ago.

Some missing plastic. PAFs may not have been real. Bigsby. Still somewhat cheap, but not as cheap as if this had sold 3 years ago.

The guitar is fitted with two Humbuckers each bearing a later PATENT APPLIED FOR decal. Both pickups are with double black bobbins. There is a chip on the upper face of the headstock. The fingerboard has been refretted. The guitar was formally fitted with non-original tuners but has been restored back to single ring Klusons of the period. Resoldering is evident on the contacts. There are two changed screws on the mounting to the neck pickup surround, which is original. The bridge pickup surround is a later Gibson replacement. The Les Paul Model silkscreen logo normally on the headstock is worn and no longer visible. Originaly fit with a stud tailpiece the guitar is now mounted with a Bigsby and the original tailpiece mounts have been plugged with pearl eyes.

The pickguard is from a pre-1958 Les Paul recut to accommodate Humbucking pickups. The pickguard bracket and toggle switch surround are not original. The case is not original and is an earlier "four latch" Gibson, Les Paul case.
An original stud tailpiece and one mounting stud are sold with the guitar.

Thanks for the detailed reply.
I had wondered since it sold why it didn't sell for more. If Gere's 59 did not contain the stock pickups that would be very sad.
I've owned two guitars made in the late 50s. One I bought in two pieces. The fact that a guitar still exists after 60 years is a miracle. Most old guitars get their parts cannibalized and used in newer guitars.
Many guitars that get refretted never play well again and end up in attics.
I restored my two 50s guitars at a loss just to protect craftmanship from a bygone era. I knew if I didn't restore these two old guitars they may have been thrown in the trash and lost forever.
I personally don't believe 60yo guitars exist with all original parts.
The worst thing that can happen to a guitar is the case gets lost and the guitar ends up in a garage. I remember back in the 60s and 70s that most guitars I saw did not have cases. Keeping cases with the guitar is a relatively new phenomenom
 
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