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Investment guitars

RicOkc

New member
Joined
Mar 21, 2016
Messages
50
From what I've read online and have been told from dealers I know, many of the "collectors" are aging and are starting to sell their Vintage/Collectable guitar collections, so the market could be slowly getting flooded with vintage guitars which could keep prices down.

I have a friend who's a luthier and sells guitars on consignment, many of his older customers are selling off their collections due to health issues, and some because they don't have anyone in their families that are interested in them.

Only time will tell.
 

Tom Wittrock

Les Paul Forum Co-Owner
Joined
Aug 2, 2001
Messages
42,567
From what I've read online and have been told from dealers I know, many of the "collectors" are aging and are starting to sell their Vintage/Collectable guitar collections, so the market could be slowly getting flooded with vintage guitars which could keep prices down.

I have a friend who's a luthier and sells guitars on consignment, many of his older customers are selling off their collections due to health issues, and some because they don't have anyone in their families that are interested in them.

Only time will tell.

The exact same thing has been said for 20 years or more. How much longer before "only time will tell". :wah
 

Grog

Active member
Joined
Apr 7, 2012
Messages
562
I may have seen this on the LPF a while back but if not, here it is again...…………

9xvlth3h.png
 

reddeluxe

Member
Joined
Apr 27, 2017
Messages
82
Regarding the new walnut finished Gibson models, that was one of Henry J's corporate decisions. Just adding another color to the ever expanding finish options, hoping to spur sales, with people of a certain age remembering those walnut instruments in their youth. AFAIK, the walnut models were always the lowest sellers, compared to the more popular standard finishes. I think Gibson is being forced by previous management decisions made 18 months or so ago, to promote walnut as the "new flavor (color) of the month", without any real demand from customer base. Just my humble opinion.
 

treeofpain

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Joined
Aug 1, 2004
Messages
969
Seems like there is more of everything for sale these days. A generally slower market means more gear sits longer, and more gear is added as older players retire from actively playing music or for other reasons desire to sell.

I think you'd be hard-pressed to say that walnut Gibsons have risen in value over the past year.
 

DrRobert

Les Paul Forum Member
Joined
Jun 12, 2003
Messages
6,050
First off, to make any money on a guitar investment, you've got to hold it for long enough for things to change. That can be a lot of money tied up. Secondly, you've got to get lucky! Who knew that my 1973 Les Paul 54 LE Custom would increase in value and my 1960 LP Special would not? Thirdly, you've got to sell at the right moment. Who would have guessed that the market for bursts would collapse in 2008 with the housing crisis (not that they won't sell, they just won't sell for the same money as they did in 2007)?

If you guess right with all 3, congratulations you're smarter than most of us! OTOH, you could just put the money into Berkshire Hathaway and be done with all the worry/insurance/shipping...
 

Ron5

New member
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
Messages
19
The answer used to be, "Whatever guitar the next rock star is playing", but we don't have rock stars anymore. :-(

Dude I agree. I’ll go one better and say “What the next dead huge rockstar was playing”. I don’t want to seem too morbid but Slash has cardiomyopathy and Zakk Wyld has a blood clotting disorder. Just sayin, man, just sayin
 

CBRmatt600

Member
Joined
Oct 27, 2015
Messages
280
As many have said, unless you've got endlessly deep pockets or are purely pursuing for personal enjoyment, I wouldn't invest a dime in vintage guitars hoping for a payout.

The universe of people who are enamored with the idea of a $250,000 Les Paul is shrinking daily. I know a lot of folks don't want to believe this- but facts are facts. Boomers are getting older, mortality is becoming a reality for many in that generation, and interest in "guitar heroes" wanes drastically in the generations that follow. It's not a recipe for an asset class that I'd recommend investing in, unless it is something you do for a living or have enough money to not give a shit.
 

F-Hole

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 2, 2015
Messages
2,171
The universe of people who are enamored with the idea of a $250,000 Les Paul is shrinking daily. I know a lot of folks don't want to believe this- but facts are facts.

'Bursts are, in fact, "on the up", as two long-term and highly respected vintage dealers declared to me recently. I was quite surprised, particularly as I've been on the sell side of the equation.

Vintage 335's are also increasing, more so for bound with correct neck angle. Even more so for blonde, cherry or black.

Pre-war Martins seem to have held their price very well indeed, but they're a different market altogether to the electrics.

Good quality vintage Marshall and Vox are increasing quite rapidly......as are good, original tweed Bassman, Super, Deluxe, Bandmaster. A clean 59 Bassman that you could buy for $8k two years ago is now closer to $12k.....and they're selling.
 

CBRmatt600

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Joined
Oct 27, 2015
Messages
280
'Bursts are, in fact, "on the up", as two long-term and highly respected vintage dealers declared to me recently. I was quite surprised, particularly as I've been on the sell side of the equation.

Vintage 335's are also increasing, more so for bound with correct neck angle. Even more so for blonde, cherry or black.

Pre-war Martins seem to have held their price very well indeed, but they're a different market altogether to the electrics.

Good quality vintage Marshall and Vox are increasing quite rapidly......as are good, original tweed Bassman, Super, Deluxe, Bandmaster. A clean 59 Bassman that you could buy for $8k two years ago is now closer to $12k.....and they're selling.


I think the sell side of the equation is the correct place to be at the moment. I haven't seen any price erosion on anything....but I do believe that it is inevitable. Especially given that the vintage guitar market is so young and doesn't have very much history behind it. This being a generational phenomenon seems more likely to me than it being a long term investment vehicle or marketplace.
 

deytookerjaabs

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2016
Messages
1,592
I'm personally shocked at the state of interest in guitars. Maybe it's because I'm in Nashville though. But, the money and mainstream interest involved is something I would not have thought would happen 20 years ago when I was pouncing around the dingy music stores & musician scene in Chicago. Back then it felt like the classes of buyers were the intro level consumers, the working guy or weekend rock band stuff, then the pricier stuff for either guys on contract who made it or the occasional sort of eclectic collector folks.

Now, here, there's this big private school and you see these normal kids every year coming to town in shiny new SUV's with 20k in guitar gear in tow going through 4 years of pricey schooling to end with a graduate rehearsal that wouldn't cut the audition at any serious universities. The market makes room.

Then, you waltz into the shops on the weekend and you see a large amount of younger folks who look like they just walked out of fitting room at the trendiest shops & salons in the mall buying up boutique gear. It's weird what a popular hobby it's become, especially the for the upper middle class kids. I guess everything from Dave Matthews band up to John Mayer to Taylor Swift to the hip internet advertising and gear forums etc have really influenced that crowd, dunno.

:hmm
 

samsdad

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Joined
Aug 21, 2015
Messages
406
I'm personally shocked at the state of interest in guitars. Maybe it's because I'm in Nashville though. But, the money and mainstream interest involved is something I would not have thought would happen 20 years ago when I was pouncing around the dingy music stores & musician scene in Chicago. Back then it felt like the classes of buyers were the intro level consumers, the working guy or weekend rock band stuff, then the pricier stuff for either guys on contract who made it or the occasional sort of eclectic collector folks.

Now, here, there's this big private school and you see these normal kids every year coming to town in shiny new SUV's with 20k in guitar gear in tow going through 4 years of pricey schooling to end with a graduate rehearsal that wouldn't cut the audition at any serious universities. The market makes room.

Then, you waltz into the shops on the weekend and you see a large amount of younger folks who look like they just walked out of fitting room at the trendiest shops & salons in the mall buying up boutique gear. It's weird what a popular hobby it's become, especially the for the upper middle class kids. I guess everything from Dave Matthews band up to John Mayer to Taylor Swift to the hip internet advertising and gear forums etc have really influenced that crowd, dunno.

:hmm
20 plus years ago roughly 1994-2000 the average working man could afford a good vintage guitar
or tweed and marshall amps and have fun and enjoy them without going to the bank for an equity loan
i know because i was doing it and it was great sure there where the greedy ones as well
but as a whole it was a great experience it was not so intense as it is now and there was not all
this historic and relic stuff like today its a wealthy mans game now and it has taken the fun out of it
speaking for myself i had a lot of cool original guitar and amps i look back now and it seems like a dream
and now thats all it is to me since i don't have more than a couple of nickels to rub together with major
disabilities mental and physical and not allowed to work because of my problems oh well i had fun then
not so much now everyday is a good day when i wake up and am still alive and heart disease is no picnic
cardiomyopathy and bad valves in the ticker is a time bomb genetically bad heart the cardiologist says
 

deytookerjaabs

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2016
Messages
1,592
20 plus years ago roughly 1994-2000 the average working man could afford a good vintage guitar
or tweed and marshall amps and have fun and enjoy them without going to the bank for an equity loan
i know because i was doing it and it was great sure there where the greedy ones as well
but as a whole it was a great experience it was not so intense as it is now and there was not all
this historic and relic stuff like today its a wealthy mans game now and it has taken the fun out of it
speaking for myself i had a lot of cool original guitar and amps i look back now and it seems like a dream
and now thats all it is to me since i don't have more than a couple of nickels to rub together with major
disabilities mental and physical and not allowed to work because of my problems oh well i had fun then
not so much now everyday is a good day when i wake up and am still alive and heart disease is no picnic
cardiomyopathy and bad valves in the ticker is a time bomb genetically bad heart the cardiologist says


Sorry to hear of your troubles, hang in there!



Maybe the vintage game has changed but lots of stuff on the perimeter is still relatively affordable. But, more importantly, if not for the vintage prices & interest all this crazy good reissue stuff wouldn't be on the market. I mostly dig vintage spec and IMO, regardless of the vintage religion, the gear out now is just badass at many different price points. Historics aren't cheap but at least can get down to the cost of a new traditional on the used market, Fender's AV line was just smokin', and I even ran into an ES style "loar" box made in China I can't get over for $300....could not resist and it's not as cool as my old ES125's in mojo terms but boy is it a open/punchy/woody great sounding box. I still lust after old classics but there's absolutely nothing that I feel I'm missing at working player price points.


So, I don't mind, I'm just surprised at the widespread interest.
 

OKGuitar

Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2011
Messages
938
I'm not sure how you can quantify the market for vintage guitars based on data available online. Nobody posts the age of their buyers. The idea that the market is dying along with us old guys makes perfectly good sense from the standpoint of pure logic...old guys can afford vintage guitars and are nostalgic for their youth so therefore they buy them. That is totally true but it isn't the entire picture. As GenX, GenY and Millennials (and that other generation in between Y and Millennials whatever they call it these days) are approaching or have reached their peak earning years and are putting money in places other than housing and kids. Ten years ago, when I started selling vintage guitars as a living rather than a hobby, my sales were 90-95% baby boomers. And, while boomers still are the big buyers, the percentage of boomers to younger buyers has shifted pretty dramatically. Today, more like 60% of my sales are to folks 55 and over. So, four out of every ten buyers isn't going to die any time soon. If the trend continues, the market is likely to continue to rise. Also worth noting, my sales last year were the highest ever. This year is lagging a bit but the fourth quarter is usually very strong.

Fun fact: Of the last ten high end guitars ($15K and up) that I've sold, two have gone to folks in their 20's, two have gone to a 30 somethings, three have gone to a 40 something and the rest to over 50's. That's seven out of ten sold in the non baby boomer market. That's encouraging and flies in the face of more than a few opinions stated here. You can speculate all you want but unless you have enough data, it's just that. Speculation.

These last ten guitars sold have been: 2 Telecasters, 4 ES-335's, an ES-1275, 2 ES-355's and an ES-345. All 1950's and 1960's.
 

CBRmatt600

Member
Joined
Oct 27, 2015
Messages
280
I'm not sure how you can quantify the market for vintage guitars based on data available online. Nobody posts the age of their buyers. The idea that the market is dying along with us old guys makes perfectly good sense from the standpoint of pure logic...old guys can afford vintage guitars and are nostalgic for their youth so therefore they buy them. That is totally true but it isn't the entire picture. As GenX, GenY and Millennials (and that other generation in between Y and Millennials whatever they call it these days) are approaching or have reached their peak earning years and are putting money in places other than housing and kids. Ten years ago, when I started selling vintage guitars as a living rather than a hobby, my sales were 90-95% baby boomers. And, while boomers still are the big buyers, the percentage of boomers to younger buyers has shifted pretty dramatically. Today, more like 60% of my sales are to folks 55 and over. So, four out of every ten buyers isn't going to die any time soon. If the trend continues, the market is likely to continue to rise. Also worth noting, my sales last year were the highest ever. This year is lagging a bit but the fourth quarter is usually very strong.

Fun fact: Of the last ten high end guitars ($15K and up) that I've sold, two have gone to folks in their 20's, two have gone to a 30 somethings, three have gone to a 40 something and the rest to over 50's. That's seven out of ten sold in the non baby boomer market. That's encouraging and flies in the face of more than a few opinions stated here. You can speculate all you want but unless you have enough data, it's just that. Speculation.

These last ten guitars sold have been: 2 Telecasters, 4 ES-335's, an ES-1275, 2 ES-355's and an ES-345. All 1950's and 1960's.

That's certainly more direct hands on experience than I have personally. My view is more from the look of macro economic trends- hence the aging population, suppressed earning power of the millenial generation, overall music tastes of younger generations, etc.

I also build custom guitars, and the majority of my customers are typically older and established. It's rare that I run into someone under 40 who is willing to fork over more than $2k for a guitar.
 

OKGuitar

Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2011
Messages
938
This is a pretty recent phenomenon-really only in the past 18 months or so. I was encouraged by the number of younger players seeking out and buying lower level vintage pieces in years past but it was rare that they would venture into $10K+ guitars. Not so any more if recent history can predict the future. The idea that older players are starting to sell off their collections is true. Stratocasters seem to have flooded the market lately which makes sense because there are more of them than any other popular vintage model. The early 335 market is quite the opposite. There are fewer dot neck 335's available this year than at any time I can recall. Gibson made fewer than 1000 335's a year up until 63 and at the same time, Fender made thousands of Stratocasters. It shouldn't be surprising that with baby boomers selling off some pieces, the most common models would be the most numerous on the market. Supply and demand still applies. Strats are down and 335's are up. Younger players are generally not interested in appreciation, only in getting a great guitar they can play that will hold its value.
 
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