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Investment guitars

bizzwriter

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Oct 23, 2002
Messages
975
Yes, things can trend down but they usually go back up. I was looking at those anniversary strats (which I think are great) & 70's Strats in general....talk about a freefall from a couple years back but at some point they'll rebound. Meanwhile, 70's Gibsons are selling for more & more every day it seems (uhg, gonna miss the boat) so not silly to think they'll continue.


I think the vintage market pre-'85 is a darn safe bet for the most part. Production totals on a monthly basis these days dwarf what the retailers were putting out on a yearly basis. Even if mass interest wanes you still have the older stuff in much smaller numbers.

As for the REALLY expensive stuff, again, safe bet if you buy a bit low. Go figure, when the market tanked so did the vintage market, it doesn't require a huge fan base, just enough people riding the historical gravy boat need to be interested to make it flow because there just aren't as many out there. We thought 20 years ago our customer base of 50/60 year olds meant an impending crash...nope, lol. Plenty of 40/50 years olds now to scoop up the next collections to go on market.

But how many of these vintage guitars are actually selling? I see vintage listings on ebay and reverb stick around unsold for weeks and months. And I haven't seen much recovery here in the San Diego area since the 2008 crunch. I've listed lots of cool guitars and amps for sale over the period, and there are very few buyers (actually, usually none) here in the $2k-$10k range. It's crickets...

I guess the dealers would know the answer -- they're still in business, so someone is buying.
 

deytookerjaabs

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Nov 6, 2016
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1,592
But how many of these vintage guitars are actually selling? I see vintage listings on ebay and reverb stick around unsold for weeks and months. And I haven't seen much recovery here in the San Diego area since the 2008 crunch. I've listed lots of cool guitars and amps for sale over the period, and there are very few buyers (actually, usually none) here in the $2k-$10k range. It's crickets...

I guess the dealers would know the answer -- they're still in business, so someone is buying.



Might be slow right now, it happens.

More importantly, I think slower sales is a reflection of how pricing is done now. You can advertise endless amounts of stuff online at no cost then ask whatever you like. This gives Ebay/Reverb some very inflated price models, even people who say "Well, one sold for 4K last year" can't acknowledge 10 identical pieces didn't sell at all because of high prices, they just sit. The big box stores and a few of the vintage/boutique dealers still believe in sales velocity (which is why they're the best to shop at in many cases IMO) but the rest just ask whatever they deem fit based on "reputation" (even if there's cracks in the facade which everyone ignores).

It's pretty funny, LOTS of guitar anywhere from 2 to 15 grand, of which there are next to no fakes (or if so they're overtly obvious), will have anywhere from 50% to in some cases 200% upcharges from the identical guitars being sold elsewhere simply because the boutique place relies on it's rep/clientele. It boggles my mind, and it's why I think some folks believe they are horrible investments. Of course you can't move it and get your money back down the road if you paid top dollar through a merchant.

I don't want to name names, but many places very familiar to this forum exemplify this phenomenon.

So, this just makes for a crazy market as we're seeing now. That clean all original blonde '76 Tele sits on the wall price drop after price drop until it's $1700 in the box store, small shop, or private online sale. Same guitar at the "debonair vintage" down the street is asking 3k but you can get a sweet deal at $2800, oooh. :laugh2:
 

57gold

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Jan 14, 2005
Messages
691
I have spoken with a number of current and former vintage dealers and the market for pre-CBS Fenders (1964 and before) and pre-Norlin Gibsons (prior to 1966) is extremely thin and slow. There are way fewer folks looking and the ones that are move slowly. Prices are significantly below their 2007 highs. Not one dealer has said anything different, a consistent view.

The 1950s Burst, V, Explorer, Blonde 335, Mary Kay club is a special group of well-heeled collectors that seems to keep these items at high levels. Not the case for the rest of the serious vintage market, which would not include stuff from the 1970s and 1980s. Sorry kids, those would be used guitars...better versions made new today of most of them, like why buy a 1976 Tele...like ever, better off with a used Danocaster, Rick Kelley, Suhr...or recent Fender, better made now than in 1976.

However, if that potty brown walnut floats your boat, go for it! My bud back in the day had a walnut 335 with Gibson impressed in the pU covers, trapeze TP and witch hat knobs...he loved it and played it well.

A realistic, non-delusional approach is to buy instruments you love and are happy passing on to your kids...if you believe that your guitar closet will serve as a 401k, you may be eating Spam and living in a trailer as a retiree...though I like fried Spam and my uncle's trailer down in Naples FL area makes him happy and comfortable.
 

deytookerjaabs

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Nov 6, 2016
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Given that incredibly few if any dealers currently have a war chest of Pre-CBS teles/strats or McCarty lesters or pre-war Martins etc I think it's safe to say the "less desirable" guitars ARE the vintage market regardless of whether the 70's are included. Yes, I used to work at a shop which once had at least 50-100 "gems" in stock, those days are long LONG gone. You know, people COLLECTED them. If a blackguard is the market I hope that one sale a year does the trick!
 

style0

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Jun 4, 2006
Messages
379
OK, just to fan the flames a bit. I have noticed in the past, that when any of the big companies start making re-issues of older popular products, the older versions suddenly start to see an uptick in value. I base part of my assumptions on what is coming out of the factories currently. I'm starting to see "Walnut" finishes and I can't remember that being the case for many many years.
 

surfreak

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May 6, 2002
Messages
1,114
Nothing vintage, but most of the high ticket ones were purchased in the last 7 years. My calculation of 'value increase' is a bit different than that of the average collector though. I purchased them all in Japan using US$ when the Dollar/Yen conversion rate was at its peak... So, for example, a $10,000 guitar purchase in Japan would only put a $7,000 ding on my US credit card and I can turn around and sell it today at that actual $10,000 for a very real 30% profit. This is not based on the actual value of the guitar, but rather on the value of the yen. If the yen drops down to where it was just 20 years ago, that will bring my 'profit' up to 50%. Rather than buying guitars I hope will increase in value I was content to purchase those that would merely hold their value... and just enjoy them in the meantime while the international currency exchange did its thing.

I understand your reasoning, but are you sure that modern production, high ticket Gibson guitars are really investments? The market is oversaturated, and these great guitars are simply not selling for the asking price.

I own a few high ticket pieces too, but to be honest I have never considered them as investment, and I know for a fact that if I were to sell them I would take a hit.
 

Kris Ford

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Jan 6, 2007
Messages
4,003
Couple points here need to made.

Walnut Brown debuted in the CMI era (early '69)

A '69 is NOT a Norlin, nor is a '72..YES, ECL bought CMI in December of 69, but the merger didn't occur until 1974.

SO '66-69 is still VERY much 100% CMI..then late December of '69 (might as well say '70..CMI still controlled Gibson..you will not see the word NORLIN in ANY Gibson literature until 1975...none, nada zip..

In my experiences, it's usually those that have VESTED INTEREST in pre '69 stuff that dog ECL/CMI and Norlin era stuff the most...and I'm sorry..MOST of that is rooted in personal preference, not FACT. All stuff that you could NEVER, ever pick out on a recording...it's been proven here that no one can accurately and repeatedly tell a P90 from a PAF in a blind test.

BUT, I think is awful that dealers want to gouge these like they are the next bursts..they are not..though they should have SOME value as GOOD instruments...for HARD rock..they just can't be beat...

I don't care what my '76 Les Paul is worth...to me it is priceless..(though someone didn't like the mini-hums in it either) It sports full size now, and it's ALL the LP I need.

And if you HEARD it (the main point of an instrument, right? At least it is in my book)..the LAST thing you'd even think is NORLIN. 9.29 pounds too..

Enjoy some shitty Norlin mini humtone here:
 

style0

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Jun 4, 2006
Messages
379
No you misunderstood me, I would never invest in a newer instrument(EVER!). I'm saying the color is gaining popularity (strangely) and I am thinking the original Walnuts might go up in price.
 

deytookerjaabs

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Nov 6, 2016
Messages
1,592
The word "investment" is misleading but there's tons of new (but purchased used) things I'd say if you bought now you'd flip for a decent profit % a few years down the road. Limited run stuff with a good following online mostly, at all price points. I know a guy who bought a brazilian '03 from Dave's new and a couple years later made $1500 trading it in.

I used to trade in gear to surprising profits to a couple shops in Chicago which gave me more than I could move it on ebay for, but you had to have the right kind of stuff and know what they were interested in but you have to buy low. Some places are just able to move things at stupid price points when no one else can.

Who knows though, maybe reports of slow sales (I know one fella who laments the first few months of 2017) will continue? Lack of plummeting prices in many areas tells me it's not going to happen.
 

rockabilly69

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Jul 29, 2001
Messages
2,870
these two Gibsons are from some of the worst years in Gibson history 1974 and 1978, and some people bad mouth them as cold and sterile sounding, yet I've had many offers on them that were substantially more than I paid, the guitar market is a little crazy...





 

OKGuitar

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Joined
Jan 20, 2011
Messages
938
"Specials" I was kinda right.
You were kinda not. Specials are dead. I had a real nice all original and clean 56 TV Special on consignment in my shop for two years and eventually lowered it to $8K and still couldn't sell it. Everybody loved it, nobody wanted it. I predict that your prediction for walnuts being the next big thing is wrong. I won't touch a walnut 335 (and I love 335's)l. I don't know about other walnuts but walnut 335's are poison. If I had 10 great walnut 68's and a crappy red 68 on the wall, I could sell the red one ten times before I sold a walnut.
 

rockabilly69

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Jul 29, 2001
Messages
2,870
You were kinda not. Specials are dead. I had a real nice all original and clean 56 TV Special on consignment in my shop for two years and eventually lowered it to $8K and still couldn't sell it. Everybody loved it, nobody wanted it. I predict that your prediction for walnuts being the next big thing is wrong. I won't touch a walnut 335 (and I love 335's)l. I don't know about other walnuts but walnut 335's are poison. If I had 10 great walnut 68's and a crappy red 68 on the wall, I could sell the red one ten times before I sold a walnut.

I would buy the Walnut because they would be giving that one away, and I could give a damn about color as long as
it's subdued (walnut, black, red, sunburst, white, etc), no lime green 335s for me:)
 

rockabilly69

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A good player can make music from a piece of crap guitar, on that we agree.

I saved up, two years of paper route, babysitting, and carrying golf bags (doubles, two rounds Saturday and one on Sunday) to buy a 1972 LP Deluxe in 1972...piece of very heavy/dead/over finished junk, was 13 and didn't know better. It was made better when I installed some 1956 P90s from a GT that was converted to PAFs after owning it for a year, killed some of the innate nasty shrillness. Still have it, never play it...because have several pre-Norlin Gibsons that put it to shame.

You might be tone deaf if you can't hear the difference and/or be a great player that can make music from a turd. Then again there may be some nice examples that Norlin didn't mess up...I have never played one that I thought was special, but I'm sure they must exist.

I've played some 70's LPs that were great many from the 70-74 years! But when I was kid I went on the hunt for a 70's LP that sounded as good as my buddies '69 goldtop and it took over 5 years to find this one early Deluxe that absolutely smoked. But before that, I tried every LP in every store I could used and new and there were so many dogs I almost gave up. This was from the years 76 through 80, and with every year into the later 70's the quality control and tone seemed to suffer more and more. It was so disheartening that I almost gave up until one day while I was about to walk into a music store I met a guy right before he walked in the door with a Les Paul case in hand who told me he was looking to sell and everybody was trying to lowball him. I asked if I could take a look at it, and it was an early 70's cherry sunburst Deluxe, and even acoustically it rang like a mutha. So I offered him $400, he took it, and I played that guitar for all my locals gigs, and while I was in a touring USO band, all around the world for about 15 years! Eventually I had problems with the neck joint which could have been fixed easily if I could find a repair guy I could trust, but I couldn't, so I sold it for 3 times more than I paid for it. I wish I still had it.
 

brandtkronholm

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Dec 3, 2006
Messages
2,737
You were kinda not. Specials are dead. I had a real nice all original and clean 56 TV Special on consignment in my shop for two years and eventually lowered it to $8K and still couldn't sell it. Everybody loved it, nobody wanted it. I predict that your prediction for walnuts being the next big thing is wrong. I won't touch a walnut 335 (and I love 335's)l. I don't know about other walnuts but walnut 335's are poison. If I had 10 great walnut 68's and a crappy red 68 on the wall, I could sell the red one ten times before I sold a walnut.

+1

At first I thought this was a necro-thread from 2007, but, incredibly, it is from 2017.
Investment guitars in 2017? You're at least 10 years too late.
Specials got hot around the 2005-2008 vintage "boom." Now they're just way over priced AND common.
Walnut will be hot in 2017? The only thing that's hot is that big steamy load of walnut-colored crap of a statement.
 

57gold

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Jan 14, 2005
Messages
691
these two Gibsons are from some of the worst years in Gibson history 1974 and 1978, and some people bad mouth them as cold and sterile sounding, yet I've had many offers on them that were substantially more than I paid, the guitar market is a little crazy...






Those are the coolest of the 1970s crap...beautiful to look at, may be cool to play if you have a very strong back! I've handled a few and they seemed to weigh like 12 lbs...yours are two of the prettiest ones I have seem. Considered one myself...because they are cool looking...though never found ones as nice as yours.

Can remember photos of Pat Martino and Ron Wood with an L5S.
 

rockabilly69

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Those are the coolest of the 1970s crap...beautiful to look at, may be cool to play if you have a very strong back! I've handled a few and they seemed to weigh like 12 lbs...yours are two of the prettiest ones I have seem. Considered one myself...because they are cool looking...though never found ones as nice as yours.

Can remember photos of Pat Martino and Ron Wood with an L5S.

Mine aren't heavy, the Cherry Sunburst is 9.2 lbs and the Fireburst is 9.8 lbs. The Tarback pickups are low output humbuckers that sound great for the way I play, I can get dirty or get a great Tele like clean tone. On this clip all the steel like bends and fingerpicked clean electric guitar is my Fireburst L5s, and the dirty slide stuff is my 2014 R7. The amp is a "Supro Inspired" Dirty Girl Reverb built by forum member EFK!


 

deytookerjaabs

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L5-S's are wonderful. I fell in love with a '73 and put it on layaway at the shop I used to teach at. Took forever to pay off the 2K and it became an L5 to me, slapped on .013 flatwounds and used it almost exclusively for jazz. For a solid body, boy did come close to Wes' "Boss Guitar" tone, it really is just as it's name implies, a solid L5. I did sell it down the line to Fareed Haque (my instructor at the time) when the account got thin, came out a good bit ahead though. They really haven't come up much at all since then, regardless of asking prices.


As for Walnuts and 70's in general, Standards/Deluxes/Customs are certainly in a different price tier than 10 years ago or even the late 90's as they didn't really latch on to the boom, haha (I remember 1 to 1.5k all day & customs around 2k). Same goes for many special runs. But, the last few years? Hmmmmm. It's hard to say, they might sell quicker but prices are still all over the place. Once again, buy low and you have a good chance of at least breaking even.

I made a little album of those junk Norlin era builds (mainly '69-'85) for anyone willing to take a peek: http://imgur.com/a/TTilG Aside from the blatant attempts to break into the Fender side of things (which they still do today!) I'd be happy to own most any of them.
 

57gold

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Jan 14, 2005
Messages
691
deytookerjaabs - Pretty awesome pictorial collection of stuff, many models that I missed completely.

The one item that I have always thought was cool visually, versus some of the complete misses of the period, was the LP Signature...think they even made a bass in that shape. That and the L5S are the gems of the era.

8qR7OpS.jpg


That double deep walnut ES is special, believe that my local music shop back in the 1970s, the guys that I bought the LP Deluxe from, had one hanging unsold for years and years.

nQ2lmv1.jpg
 
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renderit

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deytookerjaabs - Pretty awesome pictorial collection of stuff, many models that I missed completely.

The one item that I have always thought was cool visually, versus some of the complete misses of the period, was the LP Signature...think they even made a bass in that shape. That and the L5S are the gems of the era.

8qR7OpS.jpg

I always wanted one of those. I love the look.
 

57gold

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Jan 14, 2005
Messages
691
Here is the partnering bass...which for some period was called a Jack Cassidy Signature (as in Jefferson Airplane and Hot Tuna for the youngsters):

ufzfxro9prwl0et6oprn.jpg


Anybody know anything about the pick ups and electronics on these?
 
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