A Burst as a legitimate investment.

Bouldergold said:

Look at the stock market spike since November.
Look at consumer confidence since November.
Look at real estate demand since November.
Look at guitar prices since November.
Be honest with yourself, always the best, my friend.

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Always honest with myself...I use facts. They aren't debatable. Independent of November, markets have been moving up for years. And wise investors have known that and taken advantage of it. November is just another inflection point to factor into investment decisions. Some may now choose to go long(er), others short(er). Happy investing.

deytookerjaabs said:

You guys underestimate the staying power of some of the music made by a few 'burst slingers IMO. There's 13 year old kids right now with Zeppelin t-shirts, only a few of them have to major in finance and go on to managing hedge funds or code the next big social media upstart or even just plain old inheritance etc etc. There's just not very many 'bursts and there's a LOT of people who can afford them as it is. Only a small portion of those folks need to be interested and it's a worldwide market at that.


Just watch a really high end auction for collectible goods, if you're like me 90% of the stuff you're not interested in at all but mass interest doesn't need to be there when things are rare. Let's pretend there are 1500 'bursts just for kicks, all you'd need is 150 collectors owning 10 a piece, maybe spread that out to anywhere from 150 to 500 collectors. Small potatoes. Guys were saying decades ago that "any day now" their values would crash due to the generation gap, still not seeing it.

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There is no question about the staying power of music or that there will always be youngsters that love the music and guitars of fifty, sixty years ago... The question is HOW MANY of them will there be 20-30 years from now as compared to today... In my opinion most of the burst mania is fueled by emotion not by investment purposes.... and if down the road (not saying now), there are less and less people that are interested in spending 300K... well again supply and demand... and if the prices start coming down you will then possibly see more coming up for sale, people getting out before they drop too much.... more for sale, less buyers, prices drop... Now if you are saying that there are so few available and that there will always be enough collectors with means available to keep the price up, I suppose its possible.... But its my gut feeling that you will see more of these coming up for sale within the next 20-30 years than you see now... and less of those collectors around that have interest in buying them.... Again just my own opinion, I certainly could be proven wrong.

F-Hole said:

Having run large investment banking businesses for over two decades, I can tell you that for the overwhelming majority of mum/dad type investors, the largest single factor in determining investment returns is luck.....hense the expression, "I'd rather be lucky than smart".

:salude

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I would have to agree with this. But even many of the big guys. What is it, a handful of hedge/managed funds that have consistently outperformed the S&P.

Ed, you raise some good points. Idk, myself. The future may be certain but the outcome is unknowable

I remember the first time I happened on the LPF and read about these six figure Bursts. I thought the people buying them either had more money then sense, it was actually an entrance key to some secret skull and bones club, or there were quite a few well heeled obsessive neurotics with one hell of a wood fetish. This initial perception was due to my looking at Burst value in terms of some kind of tone differential.

I realize we respectfully disagree on this new vs old tone issue so I'm not going to get into that debate here. However, I do think it's fair to say and everyone will agree on this, that if someone does believe that the only way to get that vintage LP tone is with a vintage LP, early P90s gold tops with issues can be had for the price of what? 3 True Historics. So while we all love to argue and debate tone, old wood etc. That clearly isn't the driving factor behind the value of a Burst.

Rather, Bursts share many of the key elements that make other items like cars and art highly collectible regardless of those items aesthetic or performance: rarity, historical context and celebrity. Sure, cultural perspectives change with every generation which may affect their value but last I looked Drake isn't slinging a Burst and values seem to be doing just fine. Where things go from here like with many other investments/collectibles remains to be seen.

Ed A said:

If we are very simply talking about will bursts through time go up or down in value... I believe they eventually will go down... To me you can not compare them to art... You have to ask yourself why are bursts so valuable?.... Obviously because they are great guitars and there were not many of them made... But I dare say another BIG reason is because so many of us in our fifties, sixties and seventies, grew up with our heroes playing these things... There is a HUGE emotional attachment to them... They represent a time gone by, they represent the music of our heroes.... But there are plenty of great guitars out there that are way less expensive... So what happens 10, 20, 30 years from now... Sure there will always be young people aware of and interested in bursts, but I believe there will be a lot less of them out there, do we really think that 30 years from now there will be just as many that crave these guitars like we do for the reasons we do?.... Less buyers, less demand... THEN, what happens when many burst owners get deep in their retirement age and decide this is a good time to part with their burst, use the money for something else... More may become available..... Supply and demand... Just my opinion but what do I know!!!... And I want them to come down so I can get one!... Still never gonna happen.... :##

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I think the interesting thing to observe going forward is whether the general culture decides that that the kind of music that made sunburst Les Pauls desirable and expensive will be in some way protected. By this I mean for the music to to continue to be appreciated through education and sponsorship of the sort that classical music continues to receive worldwide today.

After all, though I believe guitar sales are actually increasing due to increased population, there doesn't seem to be a groundswell of support for blues rock guitar among more than a sliver of younger people, the occasional sighting of a Led Zeppelin t shirt notwithstanding. I work with a lot of younger people who are not musicians and their interest in music seems to be all over the place, but mostly in modern pop, rap and electronic music.

JPP-1 said:

A recent American painting sold for an 8 figure record. From A contemporary 80s/90s "pop" artist. Cool painting, but I'm not sure I'd find a place to hang it in my house let alone pay 8 figures for it.

There seem few things as iconic as a 50s Gibson Burst. It ticks all the boxes for what is collectible, it's rare (relatively speaking) It's sound and image defined, along with the far more unibiquitous Strat, the high water mark in rock music. It has plenty of celebrity: just look at those who own and play them. It is an American classic, despite the fact that probably the coolest guy to ever wear one is a very skinny Englishman. And each one bares a unique face and a unique story.

The only downside I can see in investing in one is the possibility of buying a counterfeit or one that has undetected issues.

Other than that, I can't really see Bursts doing much more than continuing to appreciate with the typical dips and spikes along the way.

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I watched a doc on art collecting. One of the Euro police agencies that keeps an eye on art crimes said that HALF of old art ARE COPIES.

I use to collect Mausers until people starting to buy stamps and stamp Eagles and SS markings on WW2 Mausers to increase value.

Ed A said:

There is no question about the staying power of music or that there will always be youngsters that love the music and guitars of fifty, sixty years ago... The question is HOW MANY of them will there be 20-30 years from now as compared to today... In my opinion most of the burst mania is fueled by emotion not by investment purposes.... and if down the road (not saying now), there are less and less people that are interested in spending 300K... well again supply and demand... and if the prices start coming down you will then possibly see more coming up for sale, people getting out before they drop too much.... more for sale, less buyers, prices drop... Now if you are saying that there are so few available and that there will always be enough collectors with means available to keep the price up, I suppose its possible.... But its my gut feeling that you will see more of these coming up for sale within the next 20-30 years than you see now... and less of those collectors around that have interest in buying them.... Again just my own opinion, I certainly could be proven wrong.

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Yeah, the t-shirt comment I made was primarily spawned by the day I saw old school band shirts being sold in......Target! :spabout In the 90's I had to go to the "cool" stores to buy mine, haha. Beyond that up until 5 years ago I taught lessons full or part time and I'd say partly thanks to the 'net the youngest generation is about as all over the map as any generation has ever been. There's always a pop culture but most kids couldn't care less about that. My philosophy has always been to tell a student to bring in what they want and I'll transcribe it in front of them and work through the whole thing from the technique/feel/tone to the theory/time etc. My transcription book has a whole lot of 'burst representation in part thanks to LZ but much more than that (keep in mind it wasn't always kids, lots of fellas older than me too).


I'm not sure what the current age gap is of 'burst owners but I'd think it's at least 30 years of age? If true, add that to how long those guitars have been well out of the mainstream, I'd say since about 1980 give or take. That's almost 4 decades that they've not been a pivotal part of popular rock culture. Sure, they make appearances, Slash eventually, and then the more guitar-first acts but they weren't on the radar for all those chart topping rockers through the hair-ey 80's, and didn't have anything to do with the seminal works of all the great 90's rock bands etc.


If you're 50 years old today chances are VERY good you've never seen Allman's/LZ/Fleetwood/ZZtop/Skynard/Etc live in their prime. Yet, a lot of folks that age, to me, seem to have a stronger connection to that stuff than they do their generation's stadium & hair rockers. And now there's a guy from Pearl Jam and Metallica who own 'bursts, hehe. That's why I think they've passed the gap, they're just such a big part of rock'n'roll history 101 and IMO they don't even need hyperbole to be revered anymore.

My two cents is that if you purchased a vintage burst to be played and appreciated by yourself I wholeheartedly applaud you but if you purchased a vintage burst to flip and make some money (which is all good also ) that is where it can get risky as in any other investments such as the commodities market .

People need to keep in mind that, while there is a small supply of Bursts, the demand side (the actual market, made up of buying and selling) is also vanishingly small. The market for Bursts is NOT the number of people who are interested in them, any more than the market for Rothkos is the number of people interested in post-War abstract art. Liquidity is very poor, and the actual "market" is, shall we say, "artisanal". It is also beset by more than its share of corruption, cons, and double-dealing. If this is anyone's idea of a can't-miss speculation, then, by all means, have at it...

IMO, a better way to view it is that a Burst purchase is simply a luxury item, like a Bentley. You buy one (or more...) because you WANT one, not because you need one. The things that makes it a great way to spend your big green are all the things discussed, the "dividends", as Tom accurately calls them.